The war in Syria has not ended. In fact, the phase of ‘post-ISIS
wars’ has just started. Syria remains a dangerous link between regional
conflicts and the great powers, despite the defeat of ISIS in the east.
The recent confrontation between Iran and Israel in Syria is only one of
the few possibilities that could fuel the next phase of civil war in
Syria.
A messier quagmire
Turkey
has opened a direct confrontation with the People’s Protection Units in
the northern Kurdish town of Afrin. Turkey, Iran and Russia are also
competing with each other in a three-way struggle over Idlib and the
downing of the Sukhoi-25 plane on February 3 is a sign of this rivalry.
Meanwhile, the US-led coalition is encountering intense challenge from
the Russian-Iranian coalition after US warded off a major pro-regime
attack in Deir al-Zour on July 7 last year.
Iran
and Hezbollah are exploiting the terms set for the ‘de-escalation
zones’— a deal brokered by Russia, Jordan and the United States in
southern Syria — in order to develop a military infrastructure along the
Golan Heights. Israel and the US have failed to stop this development
or reverse it. Israel has repeatedly asserted its “absolute freedom” to
act in response to future violations of its red lines by Iran, including
the establishment of Iran’s permanent military base in Syria and
transfer of advanced weapons to Hezbollah through Syria. Israel fears
that Iran will use Syrian territory to launch attacks or create a ground
corridor from Iran to Lebanon after the fall of Abu Kamal (on the
Iraqi-Syrian border), allowing it to transfer weapons more easily to
Hezbollah.
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